According to @BullTheoryio, Michael Saylor's MSTR-linked strategy is down 56% over the past 56 days (source: @BullTheoryio, X, Dec 1, 2025). According to @BullTheoryio, the strategy holds $55B in Bitcoin (BTC) while MicroStrategy's market cap stands at $47B, implying an approximate $8B gap and roughly a 15% discount versus the reported BTC holdings based on those figures (source: @BullTheoryio, X, Dec 1, 2025). According to @BullTheoryio, the post also highlights market fears that MSTR could be forced to sell Bitcoin, keeping forced-selling risk in focus for traders monitoring the BTC proxy trade in equities (source: @BullTheoryio, X, Dec 1, 2025).

According to @BullTheoryio, MSCI issued a consultation on Oct 10 proposing that companies with digital assets equal to or above 50 percent of total assets and whose activity resembles a digital asset treasury could be excluded from MSCI global indexes, creating a structural methodology risk for Bitcoin proxy equities such as MicroStrategy MSTR, source: MSCI consultation note; @BullTheoryio. If such exclusions occur, index-tracking funds would be required to remove affected stocks, introducing potential forced selling that can transmit to BTC via the widely traded MSTR to BTC correlation, source: MSCI consultation note; @BullTheoryio. @BullTheoryio links this structural risk to the Oct 10 crypto drawdown amid high leverage and weak equities, contributing to outsized BTC liquidations despite limited contemporaneous macro news, source: @BullTheoryio. JPMorgan subsequently published a bearish note highlighting the same MSCI risk during thin liquidity and fragile sentiment, which the source argues intensified downside momentum, source: JPMorgan research note; @BullTheoryio. In response, Michael Saylor stated MicroStrategy is an operating software company with a BTC based treasury strategy rather than a passive fund, aiming to distinguish MSTR from the category under MSCI review, source: Michael Saylor public statement; @BullTheoryio. MSCI’s timeline indicates a final decision on January 15, 2026 with policy effectiveness in February 2026, creating clear event windows that markets may price over the next year, source: MSCI consultation note; @BullTheoryio. Trading implications include monitoring MSCI consultation updates, MSTR price action relative to BTC, and research driven sentiment shocks while adjusting position sizing and leverage into MSCI decision dates to mitigate index induced flow risk, source: MSCI consultation note; @BullTheoryio.